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YesWeCain

Horse Squad

39 posts in this topic

Right, here is the deal;

I am looking at trying to make money as part of a group this season on the All Weather (Southwell, Wolverhampton, Kempton, Lingfield), I'll be looking for us to debate potential betting prospects as a group and hopefully succeeding financially.

I've used my ratings succesfully for a number of years now over the flat season which is very intense work although rewardable in the long run, I've taken the time out to try and get us up to date on the figures from 1st of October to start us over the next few months.

I'll offer my advice to whoever needs it but some of the key things we'll be looking at doing is trying to get a strangle hold on every horse running on the All Weather this season and trust me it's the only way of winning. What I've got so far is every winner and it's rating completed but we just need to add the runners up into the database which is quite easy for example i'll use one figure we've missed the boat on already this year;

Horse - Blackmore

Figure - 92

Goto - www.racingpost.com

Type in the search box- Blackmore (click its profile)

Look at the 4th November at Lingfield and click it

So we've got the winners rating and it's time to do the rest, you'll see a littlle number to the left corner of the text which means distance beaten but don't confuse with the two numbers either side of it beacause thats the finishing position and the horses draw!

Eagle Nebula lost by a NK

King Supreme lost by 1.50 lengths

William's Way lost by 2.25 lengths

Sarando lost by 0.50 lengths

Paloma Blanca lost by 24 lengths

Boucheron lost by 23 lengths

To make things simple before you start rating your card, anything from a; Nk, Nse, Hd, we leave as the rating above because the distance is so marginal, i.e Eagle Nebula lost by a NK we'll leave it as 92, anything like 2.25 we'll round down to 2l and anything like 1.50l we'll round up to 2l

This is what we should have!

92 - Blackmore

92 - Eagle Nebula

90 - King Supreme

88 - William's Way

87 - Sarando

63 - Paloma Blanca

40 - Boucheron

===============================================================================

The All Weather season doesn't see any exceptional horses which is why it will be rare for us to see horses reach over 90 especially the longer the trip, we're more likely to see decent figures from sprinters than two milers like Blackmore which makes this figure so interesting!

I'll talk you lot through how to work out the potential OR (Official Rating) although I'll only have this information available to me at the moment but will try make it available for the group soon. This is important in handicaps because it tells us how confident about the amount of room for error we can have withint our bet next time out!

If you look at Blackmore he ran 9l quicker than his par (A par means the class of race) if we still got our race open we can see in the title its a 0-75, if he's run 9l quicker than a 0-75 then its 75+9 = 84.

Basically we've got a 84 rated horse in potentiall running around off a mark of 60!, what does that make you think? f*ck*ng getting stuck into this, Blackmore won next time out at 11/2 but if you watch the race the horse was absolutely all over the place in the rear and never looked like he was going to finish the race yet managed to get up!, I can tell you this wouldn't happen if the horse didn't have over 20lbs in hand which makes our job easier!

If we go back to the Lingfield race he won Williams Way back in 4th won next time out at 13/2

========================================================================================

If anyone wants to join in and start having a go at rating a few cards, i'll give them the check over and with a bit of luck we'll have some good bets in the coming months.

We should hold a meeting here and discuss a potential bet with members about a horse whose recorded a decent rating but need an opinion about whether we should feel confident of betting because;

A - Its running over a different course

B - It's running over a different distance

C - It's running in a different class

D - It's got a different jockey

=============================================================================================

Please remember these are animals and you've probably heard the saying before that they're not machines but I am living proof that this system works but all it takes is hard work and I guess we're all at uni so more hands are better.

We're trying to find horses that the betting public hasn't latched onto, prices that will benefit us in the long run although be aware that we wont win every race and it's a marathon not a sprint as the season from October to March.

Whose in!?

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I am interested, need to get my head around the above first,

what is an NK?

how are we placing bets?

individually or?

are we just finding the information together?

where did u get 92 from?

how have u worked these out?

92 - Blackmore

92 - Eagle Nebula

90 - King Supreme

88 - William's Way

87 - Sarando

63 - Paloma Blanca

40 - Boucheron

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I am interested, need to get my head around the above first,

what is an NK?

how are we placing bets?

individually or?

are we just finding the information together?

NK = Neck

HD = Head

NSE = Nose

The idea was a spur of the moment thing and I have no doubts it will work if we can stay on top of all the horses running.

The figures are based on speed, it's mathematically impossible to make a horse run faster than it can which is why we have such an advantage especially if we can average up every horse to get a true reflection of their ability, only thing that can stop us winning is slow run races and jockeys not trying.

We could do a bank together, I'd have no qualms giving the bank to a more trustworthy member, not to say I'm not but given my repetiour on here some people may be less inclined to let me have control?

Nevertheless, we're all here to benefit each other and wouldn't mean anything if we all decided to bet on our own as we've all got different limits.

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is there a list of winners and runners up?

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Fair request but i know nothing about horses and only put the odd bet on the favourite..so i'll stick with the football bets

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is there a list of winners and runners up?

I've done all the winners since 1st of October for tracks; Wolverhampton, Kempton, Lingfield and Southwell.

thing is we need to do rate those behind the winners in them races like I showed in OP, if you get my drift?

this is the hard part but it will get easy once its done, our next meeting is Tuesday for Southwell so I am hoping we could have it done by then.

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i get you

so do we have to go through all the results for those tracks since 1 October?

jus trying to get this right...

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i get you

so do we have to go through all the results for those tracks since 1 October?

jus trying to get this right...

Yeah but to save the workload if we can get at least 4 people in on this then we just do 1 track each, I'll take the longest Wolverhampton.

Now this can either be done via Excel, we'll all recieve a copy of the sheet with a simple list of all the horses or a more sophisticated database programe I've partially used in the past which stores all the information for you but I'm not sure if it will install as a friend had trouble with it the other night although not sure if he actually tried to install as he was busy.

You got MSN?

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I'm struggling to see how you come up with a rating of 92 for Blackmore, am i missing something?

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I'm struggling to see how you come up with a rating of 92 for Blackmore, am i missing something?

Yeah sorry, I said I was going to post up the ratings but I forgot.

PS. I've sent Grafter the DB we could be using although he's had problems so I'm going to ring up someone to send me the setup again.

Think this could work well.

Lingfield

98 Balia Me

97 Nideeb

94 Spirit Of Sharjah

93 Hitchens

92 Blackmore

90 Lowther

90 Kiss A Prince

89 Quick Wit

89 Piano

88 Aspectoflove

87 Baby Dottie

87 Malcheek

87 Dream Of Fortune

86 Akhmatova

86 Kilburn

86 Take Ten

85 Sir Ike

85 Young Dottie

85 Piscean

85 Dubarshi

85 Titus Gent

84 Elhamri

84 Garde Cotiere

84 Ritual

83 Syrian

83 Scottish Glen

83 Three Ducks

83 Crimson Cloud

83 Naheell

82 Danzoe

82 Aurora Sky

82 Halsion Chancer

82 Wooden King

82 Freddie´s Girl

82 Pertuis

81 Whiplash Willie

81 King´s Realm

81 Fol Liam

81 Grand Zafeen

81 Muntasib

80 Romantic Wish

80 La Concorde

80 Where´s Susie

80 Herostatus

80 Celestial Girl

80 Paphos

79 Clear Praise

79 Hierarch

79 Cativo Cavallino

78 Adorable Choice

78 Ermyn Express

78 Arctic Lynx

78 Beat Route

78 Look Who´s Kool

78 Anne Of Kiev

78 Avonvalley

77 Malice Or Mischief

77 Bold Ring

76 Jovial

76 Espy

76 Brave Battle

75 Tullius

75 Rio Royale

75 Talley Close

75 The Holyman

75 Bold Ring

74 So Surreal

74 Bilko Pak

73 Atacama Sunrise

73 Frameit

72 William´s Way

70 Dazzling Valentine

68 Fastest Magician

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Fixtures this week

23rd - Southwell

24th - Kempton, Lingfield

25th - Wolverhampton

26th - Lingfield, Wolverhampton

27th - Kempton, Wolverhampton

28th - Kempton

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tulse knows wot it do when it comes to this gambling sh*t.

if smaddy is involved i wouldnt be.

#mytwopence

yh y?

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ok seen

didn't think tulse came on VIP2 to find experts on horse racing

but cool

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Don't want this thread being messed up, PM's if you want an argument.

I aint got a problem with Grafter, if they want to make a nice tidy profit then so be it, i'll make sure they know how to rate cards and how to spot a decent horse

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Don't want this thread being messed up, PM's if you want an argument.

I aint got a problem with Grafter, if they want to make a nice tidy profit then so be it, i'll make sure they know how to rate cards and how to spot a decent horse

pos for not specifying smaddy's gender

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will eat my rice krispies n hot milk and read this thread in a bit looks good

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will eat my rice krispies n hot milk and read this thread in a bit looks good

You in?

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Anyone tried doing the Lingfield ratings yet?

We got a fixture tomorrow we need to discuss.

You need to add me on msn for the database; nuckingfutz@hotmail.co.uk

PS. I've done the first few races tomorrow;

12:10

80 Imaginary World

- Spyder

- Stansonit

- Hoppy's Flyer

12:40

77 Black Baccarra

77 Best One

76 Sharp Bullet

75 First Swallow

74 Alsufooh

73 Figaro Flyer

71 Fathey

69 Bertbrand

58 St Ignatius

Errigal Lad

Fashion Icon

Bird Call

Ballarina

Imaginary Diva

13:10

76 Miniyamba

68 Dandarrell

Odin's Raven

Shoulda

Shanavaz

Countrycraft

Ice Viking

Penderyn

13:40

85 Kinigi

84 Nadeen

80 Master Leon

78 Cardinal

77 Bonnie Prince Blue

76 Conry

76 Charles Parnell

75 Electioneer

75 King's Wonder

Cut The Cackle

Amary

Johannesgray

Orchid Wing

Flying Applause

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12:10

80 Imaginary World

- Spyder

- Stansonit

- Hoppy's Flyer

12:40

77 Black Baccarra

77 Best One

76 Sharp Bullet

75 First Swallow

74 Alsufooh

73 Figaro Flyer

71 Fathey

69 Bertbrand

58 St Ignatius

Errigal Lad

Fashion Icon

Bird Call

Ballarina

Imaginary Diva

13:10

76 Miniyamba

68 Dandarrell

Odin's Raven

Shoulda

Shanavaz

Countrycraft

Ice Viking

Penderyn

13:40

85 Kinigi

84 Nadeen

80 Master Leon

78 Cardinal

77 Bonnie Prince Blue

76 Conry

76 Charles Parnell

75 Electioneer

75 King's Wonder

Cut The Cackle

Amary

Johannesgray

Orchid Wing

Flying Applause

14:10

72 Norton Girl

69 Emporersnewsclothes

68 Mary Boyle

68 Hannah Cann

68 Local Diktator

62 Endaxi Mana Mou

58 Callipygos

Bathwick Scanno

14:40

79 Goodlukin Lucy

78 Hunters Belt

70 Kingaroo

68 Mme De Stael

64 Yossi

General Tufto

Amazing Bluesky

Affinity

Knight's Victory

Capable Guest

15:10

77 Residency

76 Cape of Storms

76 Desert Strike

74 Leahness

72 Exceedingly Good

71 Gleaning Spirit

65 Thoughtsofstardom

Pocket's Pick

Guto

Sleepy Blue Ocean

Mr Funshine

Lucky Art

Grand Palace

Rio Sands

15:40

80 We'll Deal Again

77 Bentley

76 Adam De Beaulieu

75 Castle Myth

75 Know No Fear

71 Plenty O'Toole

70 Ubenkor

69 Angelena Balerina

65 Ivestar

65 Daniel Thomas

65 Nevada Desert

Dudley Docker

Tasza

Kielty's Folly

12:10 - Probably a race to avoid, I could get a handle on the others but it's probably no point.

12:40 - Black Baccara top here and recieves 3lbs from Best One although thats not much of a pull in the wieghts over 5f and Black Baccara has the draw of death "1", Sharp Bullet showed a decent run stepping up in grade last time out and drops back down where he likes going left handed also enjoys a bit of dig so his first run here could suit.

13:10 - Miniyamba was behind Blackmore at Kempton last time out and we know that horse is well in although he should of lost by 6-7l if the winner was running to a true level of ability and could be flattered, no value imo.

13:40 - Think the horse to be on in this race is Kinigi, no way is she a 8/1 shot at the minute so wondering what the bookies are seing that we're not? on the other hand lets look at Master Leon;

3.2lbs slows down a horse 1 length over 6 furlongs, we take a look at Master Leon whos recieving 10lbs from Kinigi

10/3.2 = 3 lengths

If Master Leon is on 80 we can put him up to 83, still 2 lengths of Kinigi but could be worth a bit of a punt.

14:10 - Tight race

14.40 - Tight race

15.10 - Tight race

15:40 - One that sticks out like a soar thumb is We'll Deal Again, maybe this could be our first major bet? have to question his ability to stay a mile which is a worry as he tends to look like a stayer over a strong run 6f, he's still a maiden which is a worry.

Nothing really grabs my attention and this is always a dangerous time to bet, maybe we'll just have to put this behind us and try again tomorrow?

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Just been to Ladbrokes this morning and done a £1 each way Lucky 15 (£30)

13:10 - Miniyamba

13:40 - Master Leon

14:10 - Nortons Girl

15:40 - We'll Deal Again

We got Kempton and Lingfield tomorrow

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the title of this thread always makes me picture something like

Watch-South-Park-Episode-1411-Coon-2-Hindsight-Preview.jpg

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Blackmore runs tonight lads, also Love You Louis in the 5.15 would have a chance

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Just been to Ladbrokes this morning and done a £1 each way Lucky 15 (£30)

13:10 - Miniyamba

13:40 - Master Leon

14:10 - Nortons Girl

15:40 - We'll Deal Again

how'd this go?

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