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Guest ShabbzE3

Will Hill Spring Mile

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Guest ShabbzE3

THE WILLIAM HILL SPRING MILEA race which has been a key pointer to where the favoured draw is for the William Hill Lincoln and a race in which favourites have a bad record in over the last decade. Only Katy Nowaitee for Peter Harris obliged at 7/1 back in 2000.Four-year-olds have a very good record in this race having won 7 of the last 10 renewals, so any four-year-old in the race has to enter strong consideration.So with that in mind, my analysis will begin via looking through the four-year-olds.Ella Woodcock of Eric Alston’s did okay last year on decent ground and ran up a little sequence which included two claiming wins, and a couple small handicaps. Decent run last time behind Milne Graden but it shouldn’t have the ability to get involved in this. Looks massively out of depth.Lap Of Honour sneaks in at the bottom of the weights with the claim of William Buick but I don’t think even he can get this home in front. First run for Jennie Candlish who has her horses running well but looks in the handicappers grip off this sort of mark and should really be avoided this time round.Regal Parade has been sold to Dandy Nicholls stable out of Mark Johnston’s yard and this is a nice sizeable sort who ought to have improved over the winter. Has a typical pedigree for this type of race and ran really well in the Britannia at Royal Ascot for a horse with so little experience. He lost his way a bit towards the backend last year and that’s probably down to him starting out in January and needed a rest. I think this could be a shrewd purchase for just 16,000gns and is worth watching for market support.Pelican Waters absolutely hacked up on English debut and a couple of winners have come out the race, the most notable formline was the third winning a weak handicap off a mark of 70 when getting the run of things. She’ll really need to have improved on her Irish form, and I’m not overly certain this horse stays in such a strong run race and I’d not like to be on this.Zaahid the heavily gambled on favourite for the Lincoln (but didn't make the cut) is a horse that can go well fresh and has some of the strongest race form in the book. However I don’t see why the horse is so short in such a competitive race? A mark of 92 in a tough race looks about his limit from what I’ve seen thus far and although he could well sluice in, I’m not a follower at 5/2.Heywood was a sprinter for Mick Channon and has been held by the handicapper for some time now. Can’t see this being his race and he’ll need a few more runs before he’s in with a shout at winning races, he also doesn’t look the most genuine sort either to have graced a racetrack.Don’t Panic made the best of an enterprising ride when last seen beating Crocodile Bay in September and has been risen 9lbs due to that. He could well have improved once more over the winter, and if there’s improvement I’d expect Chapple-Hyam to coax that out of him, however the price is skinny to say the least.Plum Pudding is a horse I’ve been very interested in for this race for a while, and with his run pattern suggesting he needs two runs when coming back from a layoff before winning, would put him spot on for this. Hadden Frost who rides him has a 50% strike-rate (1 win from 2 rides) and takes off a valuable 5lbs. Hasn’t got the best of draws in box 18, but you never know.Skhilling Spirit should run a decent race if he goes away on terms. The latter part of last season saw this horse obtain a few behaviour problems which saw him refuse to race, and do the same again before coming home in his own time. He doesn’t quite stay a mile, but he’ll be interesting in future races when dropped back to 7f.Benandonner ran a few quick times last year and Richard Fahey is reported to have his string well forward this year. This regally bred son of Giants Causeway, out of 1000 Guineas winning mare Cape Verdi ought to ooze class. He doesn’t however but he’s shown signs of his ability last year and more improvement can be expected this year and if he can repeat his run behind The Illies at York last year, he looks very dangerous off this mark.Selection:In what looks a tough race, it could pay to side with Dandy Nicholls’ REGAL PARADE who looks a massive price given the improvement expected this year. Has a handy draw in box 4, and has proven his ability to stay the trip and only greenness was his undoing in the Britannia last year. The selection also being by Pivotal would suggest he’ll have no problems handling any rain softened ground, and if he retains ability must go close.£200 ew Regal Parade @ 25/1 £200 ew Plum Pudding @ 10/1 £200 ew Benandonner @ 22/1

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