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Championship 2018/2019 Thread


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Bees have 21st highest playing budget in the Championship, yet four consecutive top 10 finishes 

Gray, Hogan, Odubajo, Jota, Tarkowski, Egan (cost £4.4m), sold for £38.5m 

Revolutionary use of Expected Goals (xG) in recruitment


This thread will explain how “little old Brentford”, a club with the finances and stadium of a League One/Two team, have managed to transform themselves into a side consistently fighting for promotion to the Premier League

Brentford have the fourth lowest playing budget in the Championship, but have managed to achieve four consecutive top ten finishes since their promotion from League One in 2014 Their story has been likened to the “Moneyball” revolution in baseball

Brentford realised that if David fights with the same weapons as Goliath, he will surely lose In order to compete with much wealthier clubs, they had to be SMARTER and develop unique means of operating

The Bees main innovation has come in the recruiting of players Put in extremely simple terms, Brentford have utilised the Expected Goals method to consistently sign UNDERVALUED players They have managed to pick up several high quality players for rock-bottom prices

HOWEVER, they don’t just buy players who are undervalued Brentford also look to SELL players who are OVERVALUED. When a club is willing to pay more for a player than he is intrinsically worth, Brentford are keen to sell him

Brentford treat players like a trader treats stocks. The golden rule: BUY when one is UNDERVALUED SELL when one is OVERVALUED

Scott Hogan is an example of a player who become overvalued. When Villa offered £12m for the striker, Bees fans didn’t want him to go However that money has since been invested in a whole new generation of undervalued talent, who will also be sold on when they become over-priced

Here is the “Brentford FC Moneyball XI”: Bought for £6.7m Sold for £57.3m Profit: £50.6m



Over the last four years, those specific eleven players have been bought for and sold for a profit of over £50m To put that in perspective, Brentford have only spent ~£22m in their entire 130-year history (their record transfer fee paid was £2.7m this summer for Said Benrahma)

These are only a few examples of players who Brentford have brought in for cheap, and sold for a premium The Bees have become transfer market maestros, and are probably the most well-run club in the country when it comes to recruitment

But how exactly do Brentford continuously manage to find hidden gems? The key lies with their owner, Matthew Benham, who also owns statistical analysis company Smartodds

Smartodds collects Expected Goals data on football matches, and uses this data to win millions each year through betting on football However, Benham also uses the data collected by the company to recruit players for Brentford FC

In extremely simple terms, the Expected Goals method tells you which teams/players are actually performing well, and which have simply been lucky Brentford have used this information to spot players who are underrated by the rest of the footballing world

For example, in 2014 Brentford’s analysts noticed a striker called Andre Gray who was playing in the Conference (the 5th tier of English football) for Luton Town Brentford managed to snatch him up for £500k, selling him to Burnley for £9m (+ ~£3.5m sell-on fee) the next year

Brentford’s statistical philosophy has allowed them to compete with far wealthier teams Here’s an extract from http://www.thefootballcode.com  (written before last season)...


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Leeds boro tonight should be live

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Rah, Leeds sending spies to Derby training ?



Derby County Football Club can confirm that officers from the Derbyshire Constabulary were called to the Derby County Training Centre at around 11:20am on Thursday 10th January 2019 following reports of a man acting suspiciously outside the premises.

It has since been confirmed to Derby County that the individual concerned is an employee of the footballing staff at Leeds United Football Club.

The club is now in discussion with Leeds United club officials in relation to this incident.

At this time no further comment will be made.




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