YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Right, here is the deal; I am looking at trying to make money as part of a group this season on the All Weather (Southwell, Wolverhampton, Kempton, Lingfield), I'll be looking for us to debate potential betting prospects as a group and hopefully succeeding financially. I've used my ratings succesfully for a number of years now over the flat season which is very intense work although rewardable in the long run, I've taken the time out to try and get us up to date on the figures from 1st of October to start us over the next few months. I'll offer my advice to whoever needs it but some of the key things we'll be looking at doing is trying to get a strangle hold on every horse running on the All Weather this season and trust me it's the only way of winning. What I've got so far is every winner and it's rating completed but we just need to add the runners up into the database which is quite easy for example i'll use one figure we've missed the boat on already this year; Horse - Blackmore Figure - 92 Goto - www.racingpost.com Type in the search box- Blackmore (click its profile) Look at the 4th November at Lingfield and click it So we've got the winners rating and it's time to do the rest, you'll see a littlle number to the left corner of the text which means distance beaten but don't confuse with the two numbers either side of it beacause thats the finishing position and the horses draw! Eagle Nebula lost by a NK King Supreme lost by 1.50 lengths William's Way lost by 2.25 lengths Sarando lost by 0.50 lengths Paloma Blanca lost by 24 lengths Boucheron lost by 23 lengths To make things simple before you start rating your card, anything from a; Nk, Nse, Hd, we leave as the rating above because the distance is so marginal, i.e Eagle Nebula lost by a NK we'll leave it as 92, anything like 2.25 we'll round down to 2l and anything like 1.50l we'll round up to 2l This is what we should have! 92 - Blackmore 92 - Eagle Nebula 90 - King Supreme 88 - William's Way 87 - Sarando 63 - Paloma Blanca 40 - Boucheron =============================================================================== The All Weather season doesn't see any exceptional horses which is why it will be rare for us to see horses reach over 90 especially the longer the trip, we're more likely to see decent figures from sprinters than two milers like Blackmore which makes this figure so interesting! I'll talk you lot through how to work out the potential OR (Official Rating) although I'll only have this information available to me at the moment but will try make it available for the group soon. This is important in handicaps because it tells us how confident about the amount of room for error we can have withint our bet next time out! If you look at Blackmore he ran 9l quicker than his par (A par means the class of race) if we still got our race open we can see in the title its a 0-75, if he's run 9l quicker than a 0-75 then its 75+9 = 84. Basically we've got a 84 rated horse in potentiall running around off a mark of 60!, what does that make you think? f*ck*ng getting stuck into this, Blackmore won next time out at 11/2 but if you watch the race the horse was absolutely all over the place in the rear and never looked like he was going to finish the race yet managed to get up!, I can tell you this wouldn't happen if the horse didn't have over 20lbs in hand which makes our job easier! If we go back to the Lingfield race he won Williams Way back in 4th won next time out at 13/2 ======================================================================================== If anyone wants to join in and start having a go at rating a few cards, i'll give them the check over and with a bit of luck we'll have some good bets in the coming months. We should hold a meeting here and discuss a potential bet with members about a horse whose recorded a decent rating but need an opinion about whether we should feel confident of betting because; A - Its running over a different course B - It's running over a different distance C - It's running in a different class D - It's got a different jockey ============================================================================================= Please remember these are animals and you've probably heard the saying before that they're not machines but I am living proof that this system works but all it takes is hard work and I guess we're all at uni so more hands are better. We're trying to find horses that the betting public hasn't latched onto, prices that will benefit us in the long run although be aware that we wont win every race and it's a marathon not a sprint as the season from October to March. Whose in!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grafter Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 I am interested, need to get my head around the above first, what is an NK? how are we placing bets? individually or? are we just finding the information together? where did u get 92 from? how have u worked these out? 92 - Blackmore 92 - Eagle Nebula 90 - King Supreme 88 - William's Way 87 - Sarando 63 - Paloma Blanca 40 - Boucheron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 I am interested, need to get my head around the above first, what is an NK? how are we placing bets? individually or? are we just finding the information together? NK = Neck HD = Head NSE = Nose The idea was a spur of the moment thing and I have no doubts it will work if we can stay on top of all the horses running. The figures are based on speed, it's mathematically impossible to make a horse run faster than it can which is why we have such an advantage especially if we can average up every horse to get a true reflection of their ability, only thing that can stop us winning is slow run races and jockeys not trying. We could do a bank together, I'd have no qualms giving the bank to a more trustworthy member, not to say I'm not but given my repetiour on here some people may be less inclined to let me have control? Nevertheless, we're all here to benefit each other and wouldn't mean anything if we all decided to bet on our own as we've all got different limits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grafter Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 is there a list of winners and runners up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCo KinG Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Fair request but i know nothing about horses and only put the odd bet on the favourite..so i'll stick with the football bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 is there a list of winners and runners up? I've done all the winners since 1st of October for tracks; Wolverhampton, Kempton, Lingfield and Southwell. thing is we need to do rate those behind the winners in them races like I showed in OP, if you get my drift? this is the hard part but it will get easy once its done, our next meeting is Tuesday for Southwell so I am hoping we could have it done by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grafter Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 i get you so do we have to go through all the results for those tracks since 1 October? jus trying to get this right... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 i get you so do we have to go through all the results for those tracks since 1 October? jus trying to get this right... Yeah but to save the workload if we can get at least 4 people in on this then we just do 1 track each, I'll take the longest Wolverhampton. Now this can either be done via Excel, we'll all recieve a copy of the sheet with a simple list of all the horses or a more sophisticated database programe I've partially used in the past which stores all the information for you but I'm not sure if it will install as a friend had trouble with it the other night although not sure if he actually tried to install as he was busy. You got MSN? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
serpent Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm struggling to see how you come up with a rating of 92 for Blackmore, am i missing something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm struggling to see how you come up with a rating of 92 for Blackmore, am i missing something? Yeah sorry, I said I was going to post up the ratings but I forgot. PS. I've sent Grafter the DB we could be using although he's had problems so I'm going to ring up someone to send me the setup again. Think this could work well. Lingfield 98 Balia Me 97 Nideeb 94 Spirit Of Sharjah 93 Hitchens 92 Blackmore 90 Lowther 90 Kiss A Prince 89 Quick Wit 89 Piano 88 Aspectoflove 87 Baby Dottie 87 Malcheek 87 Dream Of Fortune 86 Akhmatova 86 Kilburn 86 Take Ten 85 Sir Ike 85 Young Dottie 85 Piscean 85 Dubarshi 85 Titus Gent 84 Elhamri 84 Garde Cotiere 84 Ritual 83 Syrian 83 Scottish Glen 83 Three Ducks 83 Crimson Cloud 83 Naheell 82 Danzoe 82 Aurora Sky 82 Halsion Chancer 82 Wooden King 82 Freddie´s Girl 82 Pertuis 81 Whiplash Willie 81 King´s Realm 81 Fol Liam 81 Grand Zafeen 81 Muntasib 80 Romantic Wish 80 La Concorde 80 Where´s Susie 80 Herostatus 80 Celestial Girl 80 Paphos 79 Clear Praise 79 Hierarch 79 Cativo Cavallino 78 Adorable Choice 78 Ermyn Express 78 Arctic Lynx 78 Beat Route 78 Look Who´s Kool 78 Anne Of Kiev 78 Avonvalley 77 Malice Or Mischief 77 Bold Ring 76 Jovial 76 Espy 76 Brave Battle 75 Tullius 75 Rio Royale 75 Talley Close 75 The Holyman 75 Bold Ring 74 So Surreal 74 Bilko Pak 73 Atacama Sunrise 73 Frameit 72 William´s Way 70 Dazzling Valentine 68 Fastest Magician Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Fixtures this week 23rd - Southwell 24th - Kempton, Lingfield 25th - Wolverhampton 26th - Lingfield, Wolverhampton 27th - Kempton, Wolverhampton 28th - Kempton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grafter Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 tulse knows wot it do when it comes to this gambling sh*t. if smaddy is involved i wouldnt be. #mytwopence yh y? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grafter Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 ok seen didn't think tulse came on VIP2 to find experts on horse racing but cool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Don't want this thread being messed up, PM's if you want an argument. I aint got a problem with Grafter, if they want to make a nice tidy profit then so be it, i'll make sure they know how to rate cards and how to spot a decent horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lens Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Don't want this thread being messed up, PM's if you want an argument. I aint got a problem with Grafter, if they want to make a nice tidy profit then so be it, i'll make sure they know how to rate cards and how to spot a decent horse pos for not specifying smaddy's gender 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLACK VICTIM Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 will eat my rice krispies n hot milk and read this thread in a bit looks good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 will eat my rice krispies n hot milk and read this thread in a bit looks good You in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grafter Posted November 22, 2010 Report Share Posted November 22, 2010 are we still gna do this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLACK VICTIM Posted November 22, 2010 Report Share Posted November 22, 2010 im in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 22, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2010 Anyone tried doing the Lingfield ratings yet? We got a fixture tomorrow we need to discuss. You need to add me on msn for the database; [email protected] PS. I've done the first few races tomorrow; 12:10 80 Imaginary World - Spyder - Stansonit - Hoppy's Flyer 12:40 77 Black Baccarra 77 Best One 76 Sharp Bullet 75 First Swallow 74 Alsufooh 73 Figaro Flyer 71 Fathey 69 Bertbrand 58 St Ignatius Errigal Lad Fashion Icon Bird Call Ballarina Imaginary Diva 13:10 76 Miniyamba 68 Dandarrell Odin's Raven Shoulda Shanavaz Countrycraft Ice Viking Penderyn 13:40 85 Kinigi 84 Nadeen 80 Master Leon 78 Cardinal 77 Bonnie Prince Blue 76 Conry 76 Charles Parnell 75 Electioneer 75 King's Wonder Cut The Cackle Amary Johannesgray Orchid Wing Flying Applause Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 22, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2010 12:10 80 Imaginary World - Spyder - Stansonit - Hoppy's Flyer 12:40 77 Black Baccarra 77 Best One 76 Sharp Bullet 75 First Swallow 74 Alsufooh 73 Figaro Flyer 71 Fathey 69 Bertbrand 58 St Ignatius Errigal Lad Fashion Icon Bird Call Ballarina Imaginary Diva 13:10 76 Miniyamba 68 Dandarrell Odin's Raven Shoulda Shanavaz Countrycraft Ice Viking Penderyn 13:40 85 Kinigi 84 Nadeen 80 Master Leon 78 Cardinal 77 Bonnie Prince Blue 76 Conry 76 Charles Parnell 75 Electioneer 75 King's Wonder Cut The Cackle Amary Johannesgray Orchid Wing Flying Applause 14:10 72 Norton Girl 69 Emporersnewsclothes 68 Mary Boyle 68 Hannah Cann 68 Local Diktator 62 Endaxi Mana Mou 58 Callipygos Bathwick Scanno 14:40 79 Goodlukin Lucy 78 Hunters Belt 70 Kingaroo 68 Mme De Stael 64 Yossi General Tufto Amazing Bluesky Affinity Knight's Victory Capable Guest 15:10 77 Residency 76 Cape of Storms 76 Desert Strike 74 Leahness 72 Exceedingly Good 71 Gleaning Spirit 65 Thoughtsofstardom Pocket's Pick Guto Sleepy Blue Ocean Mr Funshine Lucky Art Grand Palace Rio Sands 15:40 80 We'll Deal Again 77 Bentley 76 Adam De Beaulieu 75 Castle Myth 75 Know No Fear 71 Plenty O'Toole 70 Ubenkor 69 Angelena Balerina 65 Ivestar 65 Daniel Thomas 65 Nevada Desert Dudley Docker Tasza Kielty's Folly 12:10 - Probably a race to avoid, I could get a handle on the others but it's probably no point. 12:40 - Black Baccara top here and recieves 3lbs from Best One although thats not much of a pull in the wieghts over 5f and Black Baccara has the draw of death "1", Sharp Bullet showed a decent run stepping up in grade last time out and drops back down where he likes going left handed also enjoys a bit of dig so his first run here could suit. 13:10 - Miniyamba was behind Blackmore at Kempton last time out and we know that horse is well in although he should of lost by 6-7l if the winner was running to a true level of ability and could be flattered, no value imo. 13:40 - Think the horse to be on in this race is Kinigi, no way is she a 8/1 shot at the minute so wondering what the bookies are seing that we're not? on the other hand lets look at Master Leon; 3.2lbs slows down a horse 1 length over 6 furlongs, we take a look at Master Leon whos recieving 10lbs from Kinigi 10/3.2 = 3 lengths If Master Leon is on 80 we can put him up to 83, still 2 lengths of Kinigi but could be worth a bit of a punt. 14:10 - Tight race 14.40 - Tight race 15.10 - Tight race 15:40 - One that sticks out like a soar thumb is We'll Deal Again, maybe this could be our first major bet? have to question his ability to stay a mile which is a worry as he tends to look like a stayer over a strong run 6f, he's still a maiden which is a worry. Nothing really grabs my attention and this is always a dangerous time to bet, maybe we'll just have to put this behind us and try again tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 23, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2010 Just been to Ladbrokes this morning and done a £1 each way Lucky 15 (£30) 13:10 - Miniyamba 13:40 - Master Leon 14:10 - Nortons Girl 15:40 - We'll Deal Again We got Kempton and Lingfield tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skola Posted November 23, 2010 Report Share Posted November 23, 2010 the title of this thread always makes me picture something like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesWeCain Posted November 24, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2010 Blackmore runs tonight lads, also Love You Louis in the 5.15 would have a chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLACK VICTIM Posted November 24, 2010 Report Share Posted November 24, 2010 Just been to Ladbrokes this morning and done a £1 each way Lucky 15 (£30) 13:10 - Miniyamba 13:40 - Master Leon 14:10 - Nortons Girl 15:40 - We'll Deal Again how'd this go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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